Sean Keeler: Broncos legend Champ Bailey's advice to Sean Payton? Take AFC West from Chiefs, Super Bowl will follow.

Sean Keeler, The Denver Post on Aug 5, 2025

Published in Football

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DENVER — The road to a Super Bowl has to start at 17th and Stadium Circle.

“You want that home game in January, where people have to come to Mile High,” Former Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey told me by phone Tuesday. “It gives you an advantage. That’s what they need to focus on.”

Bailey’s done the map in his head a million times. He’s done the math a thousand times on top of that. Both data sets line up with the same conclusion: Want a parade? Win the AFC West first.

“I mean, if you don’t win the division, it doesn’t give you confidence going into the playoffs,” Champ continued. “You saw how they went up to Buffalo last year and basically laid an egg. You want that home game.”

And here’s why. No AFC west wild-card team has one more than one postseason game since John Elway’s 1997 Broncos. Since Peyton Manning retired in March 2016, six AFC West teams went on to the playoffs as wild cards. Collectively, they went 1-6. The only one of those clubs to win a single postseason game was the ’18 Chargers, who upset the Ravens in Baltimore.

Meanwhile, the AFC West champions have put up a postseason record of 17-6 over that same span.

“For them to close the gap (on the AFC), win a division,” said Bailey, now an analyst for Warner Bros. Discovery and TNT Sports. “The Chiefs have owned this division for the past seven, eight years.

“So for me, that’s the start. Secure the division. I’m sure that’s what Sean Payton is talking about more than anything in those private meetings with all the team, with all the players.”

Payton’s not whispering about a Broncos Super Bowl. He’s been shouting it from a Mile High. Bailey, a Pro Football Hall-of-Famer and the NFL’s all-time leader in passes defended (203), shares Payton’s affection for this roster. And for quarterback Bo Nix.

He’s also setting the bar slightly lower for 2025.

“Winning a playoff game,” Bailey said. “Let’s be real — nobody’s going to be satisfied with not winning a Super Bowl. But I think you have to progress. And that’s winning a playoff game.

“Ultimately, if you can win one, maybe you get to the championship game if your regular season was that great. But we all know there’s only one bye per conference, and it’s extremely hard to lock that in.

“So, a successful year? Definitely winning a playoff game. I would say it would start with that. But nobody’s going to be satisfied, let’s just say that.

“When Sean Payton speaks highly of his team this early, you’ve got to take him at his word. He sees something that most people aren’t going to see. Now people are going to start buying into it. Now it’s just up to the team to go perform.”

Nix has a target on his back now, Bailey warned, just as there is for Lamar Jackson in Baltimore or Josh Allen in Buffalo. The difference? When the Ravens or Bills need to take the heat off their mobile QB1s, they can soften up a defense by hammering them with a bell-cow running back. Or two.

“How do you help a young quarterback? I mean, you’ve got one of the better offensive lines in the league, so you’ve got to protect him,” Bailey said. “You’ve also got to be a more effective running team. Running the ball will never go away — the importance of it, it’ll never go away in this game.

“That’s what propels you to the championship game and then the Super Bowl. That’s what they’ve got to really focus on.

“You look at how (the Broncos) did it last year — it was more by committee. I expect them to do a little bit more of that this year. It has to be more of an impact on that offense. You can’t keep trying to scramble out of third downs and hope your quarterback makes a big play.”

The Broncos are 7-1 under Payton when they’ve run for 125 yards or more in a game. The Bills rushed for 210 yards on the Broncos in the playoffs this past January in a laugher. The Ravens put up 127 on the ground in a 31-point humbling of Denver last November.

“Because they could,” Bailey noted. “And think about it: It takes so much pressure off their superstar quarterbacks. So imagine what it would do for (Nix).”

Hey, imagine what a postseason home game could do. In January. At altitude.

“You’re talking about (beating) Buffalo and Baltimore, but let’s really think about this: We can’t ignore the division, first and foremost,” Bailey stressed.

“I don’t care about Buffalo and Baltimore at this point. Win the division. That’s six games that you need to concentrate on winning. Obviously, you want to beat the other opponents in the AFC. But dude, you’ve got to win the division first. Let’s get that done.”

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