PHILADELPHIA — Where these 76ers end up will depend on the health of a player who had two left knee surgeries in 14 months and three in nine years.

This was always the case.

What has changed is the level of intrigue regarding what the team will do in the June 25-26 NBA draft.

Right now, the Sixers are garnering headlines for exploring every option to land an impact player. They currently have the third and 35th pick (second round).

The Sixers reached out to the San Antonio Spurs about moving up one spot to potentially pick Rutgers point guard Dylan Harper at No. 2. Rutgers forward Ace Bailey, Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, Texas guard Tre Johnson, and Duke swingman Kon Knueppel remain options, should the team remain at No. 3. The Sixers could also trade down a few spots and get one of the draft prospects they covet in addition to a quality veteran or other assets to assist with their win-now path.

But none of those scenarios will matter unless Joel Embiid is healthy and playing close to his dominant self.

The Eastern Conference is expected to be wide-open next season with Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum sidelined with a ruptured right Achilles tendon. With Tatum out, the 2024 NBA champions are expected to make drastic roster moves and undertake a semi-rebuild while trying to get under the second apron.

But a Sixers roster without a healthy Embiid can’t contend with NBA finalist Indiana Pacers or the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks. It also would have a tough time against the emerging Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic.

Whoever they draft won’t make the type of immediate impact to turn the Sixers back into contenders. Nor do the Sixers have the available cap space to add high-priced difference-makers next season with $144.7 million tied up in Embiid ($55.2 million), Paul George ($51.6 million) and Tyrese Maxey ($37.9 million).

The Sixers have more than $578.7 million invested in the Big Three over the next several seasons. Based on Embiid and George’s injury history and this season’s declining play, those contracts could set the Sixers back five to 10 seasons.

George, 35, has three years and $162.3 million remaining on the free-agency deal he signed in July. Meanwhile, Embiid, 31, has four years and $248.1 million left on his contract after signing a three-year extension in September.

With a hard-to-move deal, the Sixers have no choice but to hope Embiid indeed is healthy and close to his dominant form.

The 2023 MVP and seven-time All-Star underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on April 9 at NYU Langone Sports Medicine Center. Dr. Jonathan L. Glashow, who performed the surgery, has worked with and rehabbed numerous athletes, including Kawhi Leonard.

This procedure came after the Sixers determined on Feb. 28 that Embiid was medically unable to play and would remain sidelined for the remainder of the season to focus on treatment and rehabilitation.

He only played in 19 games this past season while struggling to gain full strength in his left knee after undergoing meniscus surgery on Feb. 6, 2024. That operation and other ailments limited Embiid’s 2023-24 season to 39 games. He also had left knee surgery to repair a meniscus tear in March 2017. That led to Embiid playing in just 31 games during the 2016-17 season.

Unfortunately for the 7-foot-2, 280-pounder, the number of games he has missed (407) is approaching his games played (452).

Shortly after April’s surgery, the team said Embiid would be reevaluated in about six weeks. However, they haven’t offered an update. At his season-ending press conference on April 13, Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey expressed optimism that Embiid can return to his dominant form.

What gives Morey such confidence?

“Look, Coach [Nick Nurse] and I aren’t doctors, except for his name,” Morey said of Nurse, who has a Ph.D. in sports leadership from Concordia University Chicago. “But we’re not doctors, and we have to rely on the information they give us to make our decisions. And it’s not just one doctor; we’re talking about multiple doctors. And Dr. Glashow, going in there for the surgery and coming out very optimistic, that makes us optimistic.”

But things didn’t look promising for Embiid this season, especially not during his final appearance on Feb. 22.

He remained on the bench the entire fourth quarter with the game against the Brooklyn Nets on the line because Guerschon Yabusele was a more impactful option.

It likely was embarrassing for the post player who was the league’s most dominant force that two seasons prior.

Embiid had a tough time moving around, especially on the defensive end, because of his knee problems. That led to Nets post players scoring on him at will.

He also struggled to make shots and scored 14 points on 4-for-13 shooting.

So, in the fourth quarter, Nurse had a decision to make: Bring the team’s franchise player back into the game or ride with Yabusele. Nurse opted for the latter in what became a 105-103 setback at the Wells Fargo Center.

“Well, that group was just playing so well together and had a good feel for the game at that point, and just wanted to let them roll with it,” Nurse said then.

But the entire season mostly was un-Embiid-like.

His averages of 23.8 points and 8.2 rebounds were the fourth- and second-lowest, respectively, in his nine NBA seasons. He also shot career lows from the field (44.4%) and on 3-pointers (29.9%).

Embiid also had been moving worse in February than he had in December and early January.

But when he’s healthy, his presence opens up things for teammates, especially Maxey.

That’s because Embiid commands double teams, which frees things up for teammates. He’s also a solid rim protector, and, in recent seasons, has been playmaker for teammates.

His presence helped spark Maxey’s breakout season in 2023-24. The point guard was an All-Star and was named the league’s Most Improved Player.

Without Embiid this season, Maxey had to carry the bulk of the Sixers’ load. He averaged career highs of 26.3 points and 21.0 shot attempts, but he shot a career-low 43.7% and committed a career-high 2.4 turnovers while constantly drawing crowds.

So he and the Sixers desperately need Embiid to bounce back. If not, they’ll be in trouble, regardless of who they add to the roster.

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