Jason Mackey: Pirates' future with Paul Skenes a far bigger question than him winning the Cy Young

PITTSBURGH — Debating whether Paul Skenes should win the National League Cy Young Award is a waste of time.

Not only did the Pirates ace lead the league in ERA (1.97), FIP (2.36), WHIP (0.95) and ERA+ (217), but what Skenes has done through 55 career MLB starts (1.96 ERA) is nothing short of incredible.

The last MLB pitchers with a sub-2.00 ERA over that many starts: Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and Dwight Gooden.

Sorry, Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers). Great work this year. But it should be Skenes in a landslide when winners are announced on Wednesday night.

The bigger question with Skenes is whether the Pirates can build around him, how that should happen, the ramifications if they fail for a third time, the possibility of an MLB lockout and Skenes' long-term future in Pittsburgh.

You know, everything else. To break it down, let's start with the current offseason and work forward.

What must happen

You can't do it better than Skenes has thus far. In all facets.

Along with the ERA-over-55-starts stat, another of my favorites involves Skenes' ERA+, a stat that aims to measure a pitcher's effectiveness while taking into account league and ballpark factors. One-hundred is considered average.

Dwight Gooden is probably the best historic comparable for Skenes, and he had an ERA+ of 176 while winning NL Rookie of the Year and the NL Cy Young in 1984-85.

Skenes is at 215 — and his off-field makeup might be better than those gaudy numbers.

The seriousness, intensity and an uncommon maturity. The Roberto Clemente Award nominee doing a bunch in the community, assuming various leadership roles and becoming one of the faces of MLB, not just the Pirates.

It's incredible. However, Skenes is only one person.

As obvious as it might sound, the Pirates really can't afford to screw up this offseason. They need a position-player leader to support Skenes when it comes to establishing a better clubhouse culture, a veteran on a multi-year deal who's not afraid of conflict or raising expectations.

The Pirates also need hitters who can help them score more runs, ultimately supporting what should be a very good young pitching staff.

After wasting Skenes' first two years, you simply can't afford to waste a third.

League matters

The possibility of a lockout is looming over MLB like a dark cloud — though if it nets revamped revenue sharing to go along with a cap and floor, baseball would be better for it.

Regardless, there's more than likely some sort of labor- or business-related fight coming, and how that looks — especially in Pittsburgh — could be fascinating.

Why, you ask?

The MLB Players' Association elected Skenes last December to an eight-man executive subcommittee. It's a rare move for someone so young, but Skenes is obviously plenty smart, resolute and mindful of the role he could play in a few years — when he'll likely get the biggest free agent contract for a pitcher ever.

On the flip side, Bob Nutting told me in March 2021 that he supports "the narrowest possible band" when it comes to a cap and floor, along with revamped revenue sharing, though the Pirates owner voted in favor of the current CBA the next spring.

When the Pirates fired Derek Shelton in May, I asked Nutting why he continues to own the team, and he responded, "I think I'm particularly well positioned right now to be able to help influence change in the economics of the game."

It won't take place in a steel cage, but it's entirely possible Skenes and Nutting will be on opposite sides of the same argument when the current CBA expires in December 2026.

I also worry about the next CBA, whether it could enable younger players to reach free agency sooner and if it will do anything to fix MLB's growing competitive-imbalance issues.

How long Skenes stays

A potential lockout bisects Skenes' six years of club control, meaning his salary will be determined by MLB's arbitration system starting in 2027.

As of now, Spotrac projects that at $7.8 million, which feels low. Corbin Burnes got $6.5 million in 2022 after winning the NL Cy Young, but he had totaled 5.8 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference) at that point. Skenes is already at 13.5.

The point, though, is that the price tag goes up — in Spotrac's projections from $7.8 million in 2027 to $15.6 million the next year and $23.1 million in 2029.

If the Pirates are winning, paying Skenes that amount of money is obviously a no-brainer. It also might open the door to conversations about a long-term extension — which is almost assuredly not happening if they continue to struggle.

Skenes has been a team-friendly dream to this point in his career, helping the Pirates garner national exposure, increasing attendance (they could still do a better job leveraging his PNC Park starts) and embracing his leadership voice.

At the same time, what if the Pirates don't demonstrate the same commitment to winning? Do you really think Skenes will sit there and silently accept it? Highly doubtful.

Which is why, again, this offseason involves far more than a Cy Young Skenes should win in a landslide, one of countless awards that will ultimately adorn his mantle.

How much of Skenes we see in Pittsburgh — a place he genuinely loves and one that suits him — will be linked to the type of offseason the Pirates have.

If they can figure it out and this pops the way it was envisioned, with Skenes in the middle and doing something few around the game expected, that would mean far more to him than any individual award.

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