JD Vance and Pete Buttigieg top early NH presidential poll

Joe Dwinell, Boston Herald on Oct 28, 2025

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If the 2028 presidential election were held today, JD Vance and Pete Buttigieg would be on the ballot.

That’s according to the latest Granite State Poll out of the University of New Hampshire’s political center, where Vice President Vance received 51% of his party’s vote and former Transportation Secretary Buttigieg 19% from the Democratic side.

“It’s basically name recognition now,” said Andy Smith, UNH professor and director of polling. “It’s just a snapshot of the early front-runners.”

But, he told the Herald Tuesday, whoever shows the strongest in New Hampshire usually wins the state and the party’s nomination — that’s especially true for Republican candidates.

Vice President Vance is in “a solid position,” said Smith, yet so many factors are yet to come into focus as President Donald Trump’s administration works on multiple fronts, from tariffs to illegal immigration, the shutdown and the deficit to Ukraine, Gaza and drug runners out of Central and South America.

Other factors at play for the Democrats, Smith stressed, are the “generational change” within the party. Younger voters, 20 to 40 years old, identify as “socialists,” Dems 40-plus are more “progressives,” with 60 and over saying they are “liberal.”

That’s where the race for the Democratic nomination will come down to, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 15%, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 14%, former VP Kamala Harris with 11%, with Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear all in single digits with 8%, 6%, and 3%, respectively. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and ESPN yakker Stephen A. Smith are clinging to 1% or under.

On the GOP side, no one is even close to Vance. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 9%, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard 8%, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio 5%. Yet Rubio’s favorability rating is second only to Vance’s at 58%. The VP clocks in at 77%.

On the Democratic side, Buttigieg’s favorability rating is a strong 81%, but so too is Sanders, who is a solid 72% in the blue. AOC is at 66% beating Newsom’s 58% easily. Harris comes in a distant eighth at a modest 55% favorability.

The poll was released Monday and has a sampling error rate of roughly 2.5%. The poll was taken online and via text between Oct. 16-21. The survey was evenly split between men and women, with 1,547 NH residents completing the questionnaire.

The Granite State still prides itself as home to the first presidential primary in the nation, which has come under attack. The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee is taking that very matter into consideration with a decision due this winter.

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