Greg Cote's Thursday night NFL pick

Greg Cote, Miami Herald on Oct 29, 2025

Published in Football

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NFL WEEK 9 THURSDAY PICK

RAVENS (2-5) at DOLPHINS (2-6)

Line: BAL by 7 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL 33-27.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Thursday, Prime Video.

What’s big and great news for the entire NFL and biggest and best of all in Baltimore is nothing but bad news for the Miami Dolphins: Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson, the dual-threat, two-time league MVP, is expected to return from a three-game injury absence Thursday night at Hard Rock Stadium to kick off NFL Week 9. Uh-oh. No offensive player in football presents a greater challenge for any defense than Jackson. And Miami’s defense is tied for 26th in most points allowed and ranks 28th against the run. The good news for the Fins? Baltimore’s defense is 30th in points against, 28th in passing yards allowed and 23rd stopping the run. No wonder the point-total over/under for this game is a fat 51.5. Punters, take the night off! Both teams are coming off much-needed wins and looking to grow the mo’, but both are still struggling overall at 2-5 for the Crows, 2-6 for Miami. Difference is, America still believes in Baltimore, largely because of L-Jack’s return. Ravens still are a betting favorite to win the AFC North and even a long shot to still make the Super Bowl. Miami is nobody’s bet to rally for a playoff spot, unless Dolfan Denny (look it up, kids) has found a bookie up in heaven. Jackson is that much of a difference-maker. He grew up in Pompano Beach, 35 miles north of Miami up Florida’s east coast, not “in the shadow of Hard Rock Stadium” as many in the spitballing media are saying this week. Still, it’s a homecoming game of sorts — and he has been great vs. the Fins. Though only 2-2 on results, Jackson is 14-1 on TDs/picks with a 142.7 passer rating, 300 average yards per game plus 199 yards rushing and 7.4 per vs. Miami. Tua Tagovailoa has been solid vs. the Ravens, too: 2-1 record with a 102.1 rating, 288 average yards and 8 TDs (though four picks). Reasonable hope for Miami’s defense is that Jackson might be cautious about the hamstring and thus less aggressive on the ground. Oh, the temptation, though: Six of eight opposing QBs this season have scored multiple TDs vs. the Dolphins. Both teams’ beatable run defenses is why — though Jackson vs. Tua tops the marquee — RBs Derrick Henry and De’Von Achane may have as big a role in this prime-time outcome. Historical note: Miami is 8-9 all time on Thursday Night Football, and 3-2 at home. This is third TNF meeting with Baltimore; Fins lost up there, 40-0, in 2017, and won down here, 22-10 in 2021. OK, enough background and buildup. Who wins and why? Baltimore wins in its first trip to Miami since that ‘21 game because Jackson is that good, close to unstoppable. But Miami covers the 7 1/2 points because that’s a lot to gift a home ‘dog on a night stage and coming off a faith-restoring win such as 34-10 in Atlanta that saw the Fins’ D rise up and make Bijan Robinson disappear. The maligned Dolphins showed they have some fight left. The fact the bet line dipped from 8 1/2 tells you we’re not alone in this thinking. Either way, best bet of all might be the ‘over.’ Quick tip: Fans in a Halloween mood, show up dressed like referees signaling touchdown.

(Note: Betting line courtesy ESPNBet as of midday Wednesday.)