Greg Cote's Week 4 NFL picks

Last week started gloriously for me. I nailed the Dolphins-at-Bills pick (Miami covering) with a near-Exacto on the score. I had 30-20. It was 31-21. The week then proceeded to turn against me. Cleveland beating Green Bay? Carolina beating anybody 30-0? C’mon! Scrambled to a marginally acceptable 10-6 straight-up, but two games under against the spread will never be OK. (Had Jets-with-points at Tampa, at least.) Time to turn the heater on as King Sport drives late into the first quarter. (Note: Our Thursday night pick was Seahawks (2-1, -1 1/2) over @Cardinals (2-1), 27-16.)

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— Week 3: 10-6, .625 overall; 7-9, .438 against the spread.

— Season: 30-18, .625 overall; 22-26, .458 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 4 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

PACKERS (2-1) at COWBOYS (1-2)

Line: GB by 6 1/2.

Cote’s pick: GB, 31-17.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

A Game of the Week isn’t always based on records. Sometimes it’s more personal than that. Such is the fresh drama shooting electricity onto the Sunday night stage as Packers defensive monster Micah Parsons returns to Dallas. Parsons is hell-bent to put on a show with the whole country watching all the way up to the owner's suite. He wants to show a downtrodden Jerry Jones fighting to hide the fact trading Parsons has been a capital Failure. Pack will ride the Parsons factor to a big bounce back from last week’s stunning loss in Cleveland. Dallas suffered its own bad loss in Chicago, and now almost certainly will be missing star WR CeeDee Lamb to an ankle injury. Jones is used to losing to his nemesis opponent. He has lost 10 of past 11 meetings with Pack, including five straight at home. This one will hurt more than most.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

JAGUARS (2-1) at 49ERS (3-0)

Line: SF by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: JAC, 23-20.

TV: 4:05 p.m., Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Jacksonvaawwk!” San Fran is 3-0 by a combined 10-point margin. Niners hope to have QB Brock Purdy back but still are NFL’s most injury-wracked club — now with defensive linchpin Nick Bosa out for the year. Jax at 2-1 is no fluke under first-year coach Liam Coen. Jags’ ground-first offense has been solid, and the defense is hugely improved and has generated an NFL-high nine takeaways. This is not a minor upset pick. It’s out there. Limb-creaking. But the hunch is strong, and the numbers back the gut feeling. “Greg should know. That gut of his is ample,” notes U-Bird. “How ‘bout a little ‘Duval’ chant? Duuuvaaawk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 4:

Thursday night pick was Seahawks (2-1, -1 1/2) over @Cardinals (2-1), 27-16.

Vikings (2-1, -2 1/2) over Steelers (2-1), 24-18, in Dublin: It’s Breakfast in Dublin and a 9:30 a.m. kickoff for NFL’s first ever regular-season game in Ireland. Rashers, black ‘n white pudding and soda bread, anyone? Will Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell fake an Irish accent postgame? Roger Goodell’s accelerating World Domination Tour delivers a good matchup here. Edge to Minnesota on both side of the ball, with Carson Wentz in for injured J.J. McCarthy perhaps a plus at this point. Mike Tomlin is great as a home underdog (21-6-3 run), but Steelers are a home team here only ostensibly. Pittsburgh makes a tempting dog, but Brian Flores’ Vikes D is really good, and he’ll dial up a pressure plan to bother Aaron Rodgers something fierce.

Commanders (2-1, -1 1/2) over @Falcons (1-2), 23-20: Upset Alert! Atlanta’s 30-0 loss at Carolina last week rivals Miami’s season opener in Indy for worst performance by any team thus far, but that will have Falcons in major bounce-back mode at home. That factors in the tight betting line. So does QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin both being iffy to play for Comms, with Marcus Mariota on call to face an ATL defense giving up fewest passing yards in league.

@Bills (3-0, -15 1/2) over Saints (0-3), 41-13: Season’s biggest point spread finds Buffs on a 12-game home win streak and rested after playing Thursday last week. Winless N’Awlins trips in on a 3-15 skid dating to last season. Josh Allen’s offense is close to unstoppable. Saints are a bottom-five scorer. Some matchups you don’t overthink, just see the obvious.

@Lions (2-1, -9 1/2) over Browns (1-2), 27-16: Detroit’s physicality on the blocking front vs. Cleveland’s macho pass rush should be a delight to watch. Lions off an emotional high with Monday’s win in Baltimore might risk letdown mode here ... except Browns’ stunning upset of Green Bay puts Motown on guard. Clevers tempt getting almost double-digits, but don’t trust Joe Flacco to score enough.

@Patriots (1-2, -5 1/2) over Panthers (1-2), 21-19: Carolina has lost 15 of past 17 road games. New England has lost 14 of past 16 at home. Anybody wanna win here? Panthers out of nowhere crushed Atlanta 30-0 last week, but call it an aberration, a mirage, until we see more. Still not trusting Bryce Young, and now Pats hope to have star CB Christian Gonzalez back for his season debut. Bet line’s rich, though. Cats cover.

Chargers (3-0, -6 1/2) over @Giants (0-3), 27-13: The Giants are throwing Dart. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart makes his first NFL start, supplanting veteran Russell Wilson. New York Post has all of its puny, bull’s-eye back-page headlines ready should Giants win. Won’t happen, of course. Sure, Dart could lend an immediate spark and catch the West Coast team playing in the early Eastern time slot off guard. More likely: Dart gets a brutal christening vs. high-flying Justin Herbert and an unbeaten Bolts pass defense that is A grade. Could get ugly as Biggies coach Brian Daboll slumps closer to the firing line.

Eagles (3-0, -3 1/2) over @Buccaneers (3-0), 23-20: Game of the Week candidate finds both teams unbeaten by a double prayer last week: Philly beating Rams on a blocked kick-return TD as time expired, and Tampa surviving Jets as Money Mayfield led a drive for a last-play field goal. Gave a long look at this as our Upset of the Week, but Bucs WR Mike Evans is likely out, and Tampa’s O-line injuries make it ripe for Eagles’ pass rush to win the day. Still, let’s hedge with Bucs plus points.

@Texans (0-3, -7 1/2) over Titans (0-3), 17-13: Much as a tie game might seem fitting here, somebody gotta win! And I’m riding with Tennessee’s bad defense being the antidote for Houston’s bad offense. Titans have lost nine in a row dating to last year, and four of past five vs. AFC South rival Texans. But bet line is too fat for a matchup that won’t blow any scoreboard fuses.

@Rams (2-1, -3 1/2) over Colts (3-0), 27-23: Another Game of the Week contender, this one begging and answering everyone’s question, “Are the Colts for real?” Indy has beaten up on three teams that are a combined 1-8, two of those team with horrid defenses feeding the legend of Daniel (Indiana) Jones. Rams last week outplayed the Eagles, in Philly, before Birds luck won on a fluky last-play blocked kick-return TD. Give me Matthew Stafford at home, thanks.

Ravens (1-2, -2 1/2) over @Chiefs (1-2), 30-24: Yet another Week 4 tilt with Game of the Week heft, but for the records. Baltimore is smarting from that Monday home loss to Deroit — but Crows would be 3-0 if not for a pair of Derrick Henry fumbles. Lamar Jackson has been fabulous in outscoring his own hugely disappointing defense. Patrick Mahomes’ offense has struggled but could get WR Xavier Worthy back here. Tough to not ride Chiefs as a rare home dog, especially with K.C. on a 6-1 roll in this series. But I see Baltimore’s offensive firepower finally getting the better of it nemesis.

Bears (1-2, -1 1/2) @Raiders (1-2), 24-17: Chitown QB Caleb Williams is winning over doubters; he was great in upset of Dallas last week. But Bears’ defense has been pretty bad. Chicago is on a 1-10 skid on the road, but Vegas has lost 13 of past 16 games overall. It’s a stretch to trust either team, but Bears packed some feel good and momentum on this trip.

@Dolphins (0-3, -2 1/2) over Jets (0-3), 24-20: Can the Dolphins beat the rival Jets in the winless duel that is the NFL’s Game of the “Weak,” the AFC East’s Battle for the Basement? Short answer: Yes. America will be watching Monday night’s early game, perhaps in much the same way traffic can’t help but slow to watch two cars that have just wrecked. But teams played credibly last week — Fins competitive at Bills, Jets losing in last seconds at Tampa — but 0-3 is 0-3, with two bad defenses the main culprit. Many reasons to like Miami at home, though. Fins enjoy a rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday. Jets could be missing QB Justin Fields to a concussion again (still uncertain as of Thursday; Tyrod Taylor waits). Miami expects to see the season debut of new TE Darren Waller. Mostly, this: Recent history. Miami is on a 9-0 run at home vs. NYJ (6-2-1 covering the spread), and Jets are on a 1-7 skid on the road. Hard to say which desperate team is more desperate here, but I’d nominate the Dolphins. Coach Mike McDaniel needs to start winning, fast, to help steady the trembling ground beneath his job security. Another loss Monday to slip to 0-4, at home, to the Stinkin’ Jets, and Hard Rock Stadium could turn very, very ugly. If that happens, I wouldn’t want to be Tua Tagovailoa or McDaniel walking off the field that night. The Dolphins should win. The Dolphins had better.

@Broncos (1-2, -7 1/2) over Bengals (2-1), 27-17: Late game in Monday night’s doubleheader finds Denver a strong home team (6-0 run), and a solid Broncos’ D that ties for league leads in sacks will bother Cincy QB Jake Browning all night. Meanwhile Bo Nix behind a premium O-line should own the clock and pace of play vs. a subpar Bengals defense. Bet line feels a tad fat at first glance, but I’d see a comfy Denver win more than a tight one.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday afternoon.)