The two men seeking to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom as California’s next governor will debate before a prime-time audience Wednesday evening in what is expected to be voters’ only chance to see Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton spar one-on-one before the November election.

A race that before the June primary drew national news coverage, as more than half a dozen contending Democrats and a pair of leading Republicans jostled for the two lead spots that would advance them to the Nov. 3 general election, has since seen interest fade. Polls show Becerra leading Hilton by 20 percentage points or more, reflecting the state’s lopsided party voter registration.

So why bother tuning in? Melinda Jackson, a San Jose State University Political Science professor with expertise in public opinion and voting behavior, points to the June 2024 debate between President Joe Biden and then-former President Donald Trump, in which his unsteady performance led to his withdrawal from the race Trump ultimately won over Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Anything can happen, and unexpected things can happen,” Jackson said. “Just look at Joe Biden, his debate performance cost him his presidential reelection.”

Beyond the possibility of missing a rare debate face-plant, Jackson said this may be voters’ only chance to evaluate the candidates in an unscripted environment that forces them to think on their feet. Given Becerra’s substantial polling lead, it’s unlikely he’d agree to another debate.

“It’s the one chance that the voters have to see the candidates side by side, to compare them,” Jackson said. “People watching get the visual cues. It’s less scripted than the candidates’ ads or appearances. They have to answer the tough questions. You get to see how they perform under pressure.”

The debate will start at 6 p.m. Pacific time and is being hosted by CNN in Los Angeles and will run one hour, with anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash serving as moderators. It will stream live for CNN’s streaming and pay TV subscribers via CNN.com, CNN connected TV and mobile apps. CNN is offering streaming subscriptions for $51.99 a year or $6.99 a month.

In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by about two to one and that hasn’t chosen a Republican governor since giving Arnold Schwarzenegger a second term 20 years ago, the debate is a make-or-break moment for Hilton, a former Fox News host and British political aide seeking his first elected office.

Hilton’s experience as a TV commentator gives him an edge in a live television format — during the primary debates, he showed himself to be eloquent, well-spoken and quick on his feet. Becerra at times stumbled on his words during the debates, but also had his moments, like his zinger response to Democratic rival and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa: “Cálmate!” (calm down). And given his advantages in polling and party registration, he’ll be under less pressure.

“Steve Hilton has demonstrated very strong communications skills in the campaign,” said Dan Schnur, a politics professor at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, Pepperdine University and the University of Southern California. “If this were a deep red state like Oklahoma, he might be on a path to the governor’s office. But in heavily Democratic California, it would take a major scandal or an unimaginable gaffe from Becerra to turn this into a competitive race.”

Political professionals like Jackson, who will be among those tuning in, will scrutinize the candidates’ debate strategies, how they play up their best qualities while exploiting their rival’s vulnerabilities.

For Becerra, the frontrunner, she said he needs to show how his extensive experience in politics — former congressman, state attorney general and health secretary in the Biden administration — will enable him to get things done, without coming across as wooden or dull.

“He wants to come across as looking executive, not being too boring,” Jackson said.

For Hilton, she said, “he needs to convince people he has some actual reasonable or feasible ideas, rather than just critiquing the status quo.”

Each candidate also has vulnerabilities their rivals will surely seek to exploit before a television audience.

For Hilton, Jackson said the biggest vulnerability is Trump, whose endorsement he’s welcomed, and may well have won him the runner-up spot in the primary over Republican rivals, but who’s been deeply unpopular with California voters overall, especially with an unresolved war with Iran choking off oil trade and spiking prices for gasoline and other goods. Expect Becerra to tie Hilton to Trump as often as possible she said.

“Trump is certainly a vulnerability for him,” Jackson said.

Becerra’s vulnerabilities center around California’s underperformance under his party’s governance, with some of the country’s highest costs for housing, electricity, gasoline and other goods, and public schools and homelessness problems that have shown little improvement despite increased state spending on them.

“People are frustrated with the lack of progress on many of these issues,” Jackson said, anticipating Hilton will try to show how “California Democrats have not been able to solve these issues.”

Political experts also will take note of how the debate reflects broader shifts in party politics. Democrats have seen their party riven between more traditional Democrats like the outgoing governor, who is wrapping up his final term, and a far-left progressive wing touting socialism and a break in support for Israel that has seen gains across the country. Becerra hails from the traditional camp.

Republicans have often favored candidates whose experience is outside of government — like Schwarzenegger, the movie star, and also Trump, a real estate businessman before he first won the presidency in 2016. Hilton would fit that mold, but is Trump wearing it out with California voters?

“Certainly there were times when outside candidates have been compelling, like Arnold Schwarzenegger,” Jackson said. “Things have shifted from 20 years ago.”

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