Tropical Storm Isaias forms, expected to become dangerous Cat 2 hurricane

Robin Webb and Angie DiMichele, South Florida Sun Sentinel on Oct 7, 2026

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Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to quickly strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday and remain a “dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

“Hurricane watches will likely be required for a portion of the U.S. northern Gulf coast later today,” the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday in its 5 a.m. advisory.

Isaias “will become the first hurricane of the 2026 season, the latest first hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in over 100 years,” according to AccuWeather.

The hurricane center’s forecast has the storm’s maximum winds peaking at 110 mph by 5 a.m. Friday, which would make it nearly a Category 3 hurricane, before moving inland by late Saturday afternoon.

Isaias developed early Wednesday and was located 285 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the hurricane center’s 5 a.m. advisory. Its maximum sustained winds were at 40 mph as it moved east-northeast at 8 mph.

Isaias is expected to track east-northeast for the next few days before making a turn to the northeast on Friday, according to forecasters. It likely will pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday.

The storm’s change of direction to the northeast by Friday will be “a sharp turn,” hurricane center forecasters said, and it should accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast.

National Hurricane Center forecasters expect it to peak in strength before reaching the coast. The stronger the storm becomes, the faster it will head in that direction, the advisory said. Forecasters also said the storm is likely to “grow significantly in size” once it reaches the northern Gulf Coast.

“It should be noted that there is significant uncertainty in where the system makes the northeast turn and how fast it moves toward the coast,” the hurricane center’s advisory said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 25 Florida counties throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend.

“Floridians should take this time to get disaster plans in place and ensure their hurricane supply kit is stocked,” DeSantis said.

Beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected across the central U.S. Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, with up to 10 inches possible in some areas. The National Hurricane Center forecasts between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Thursday along coastal areas of the Bay of Campeche with higher amounts possible in Campeche and western Yucatan.

AccuWeather on Tuesday estimated rain totals of up to 8 inches could drench a swath from Alabama to the Florida Panhandle, an area that has recently seen a lot of rain, increasing the potential for flooding. AccuWeather is calling for 8-12 inches of rain across southern Alabama and Mississippi.

There is also an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge for areas of the northern Gulf Coast, where watches could be in place as soon as Wednesday, the hurricane center said.

“Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place,” the forecast said.

Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.