Colorado River deadline passes without an agreement

LAS VEGAS — Information, like water, is in short supply in the Colorado River Basin as seven states blew past the Trump administration’s deadline for an agreement.

Tuesday was Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s major deadline for the states to submit a framework for a consensus-based deal to update the river’s operating guidelines that expire at the end of 2026. Burgum has indicated that the feds would intervene if necessary, but would prefer to defer to the states.

A vague joint statement on Tuesday afternoon from the seven states, the Bureau of Reclamation and the Interior Department offered no insight into where negotiations stand.

“While more work needs to be done, collective progress has been made that warrants continued efforts to define and approve details for a finalized agreement,” the statement said.

The Interior Department did not respond to a follow-up inquiry asking if the seven states complied with Burgum’s deadline. Federal intervention could open the door for a lengthy court battle, experts have warned, which could delay conservation that is desperately needed to stabilize the system that provides about 90% of Southern Nevada’s water supply.

What happens in the negotiating room has ripple effects for the estimated 40 million people who depend on the Colorado River for their water supply, including seven U.S. states, 30 Native American tribes and parts of northern Mexico.

State officials have met five out of the past nine days to further hash out details, said John Entsminger, Nevada’s governor-appointed negotiator and general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority.

“I’ve been staring at these people for the better part of two years,” Entsminger said in a Tuesday interview, after a meeting that coincided with the federal holiday of Veterans Day. “We’re making progress, and no single state has pushed back from the table. I think that’s positive.”

‘Deeply disappointing’

The contentious, closed-door process to update the soon-expiring guidelines has been drawn out over multiple years, with the backdrop of levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell continuing to nosedive.

By the end of 2027, federal projections place Lake Mead lower than it has been since being filled. A group of top Colorado River experts have issued multiple reports warning of system collapse should the Rocky Mountains experience more meager snow years and Lake Powell fall below a level where water cannot be released downstream.

“It’s deeply disappointing that the basin states have not yet been able to reach consensus on a framework to manage the Colorado River beyond 2026,” said Kevin Moran, a water policy expert with the Environmental Defense Fund, in a Tuesday interview. “I understand and respect the complexities and the challenges, but the Colorado River isn’t going to wait for process or for politics.”

A major sticking point between states has been a fundamental disagreement as to whether further cuts in water use should come from the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California alone.

The Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, New Mexico and Wyoming have argued they would not agree to more cuts because they already are taking them from climate change and declining snowpack.

Some nongovernmental organization leaders have called out Upper Basin officials for attempting to divert more water from the river through proposing new dams and reservoirs. In a Tuesday letter to Burgum, Gov. Katie Hobbs, D-Ariz., and leaders in the Arizona State Legislature noted a “refusal of the Upper Basin States to offer meaningful, verifiable conservation commitments.”

Entsminger hinted that the Upper Basin may be open to taking reductions in a finalized deal.

“I’ve heard all seven states say something along the lines of, ‘This is a basin-wide problem, and it requires basin-wide solutions,’” Entsminger said. “I don’t see anyone shirking from the fact that everybody has to be part of the solution.”

But for each of the seven states, it’s a numbers game, Entsminger said.

“It’s much more a question of ‘What are the actual quantities or percentages? How are these going to affect my constituents?” he said.

A spokesperson for Becky Mitchell, the state of Colorado’s Upper Colorado River commissioner, declined to answer any specific questions about what officials are considering.

In a statement Tuesday, Mitchell said the states are taking “a meaningful step toward long-term sustainability and demonstrating a shared determination to find supply-driven solutions.”

Negotiations will continue

A Hail Mary came to the forefront in June, when a proposal surfaced that would base releases downstream on a three-year average of natural flows at Lees Ferry in Arizona.

Entsminger said both a rules-based regime for water releases, or one based on reservoir or system storage, and a natural flow, which takes changing hydrology into account, are both still on the table.

On the federal side, the leaders guiding the Colorado River process over the years have changed.

Most recently, the Trump administration’s nominee for commissioner of Bureau of Reclamation — Ted Cooke, an Arizonan — alleged the fight between the basins politicized his nomination, forcing him to withdraw because of an appearance of bias toward the Lower Basin. Scott Cameron, a senior adviser to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, has since taken the helm of the Bureau of Reclamation as acting commissioner.

Entsminger said Cameron and Andrea Travnicek, the newly confirmed assistant secretary of water and science, have been at the negotiating table in every meeting, signaling the process is a significant priority.

In a Tuesday statement, Great Basin Water Network executive director Kyle Roerink slammed the states and the Interior Department for failing to provide documents for the public to analyze, as required by the National Environmental Policy Act.

Fewer opportunities have been available for the public to provide input than there were when officials were deciding the 2007 guidelines, Roerink said.

“Rip off the Band Aid, and let the public get to work,” Roerink said. “The states don’t deserve the kid-glove treatment any longer. They have a behavioral problem as much as they do a hydrology problem.”

State officials and experts are set to converge at the Colorado River Water Users Association conference in Las Vegas in December, where more updates on the negotiation process are likely to come to light.

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