Retail pros predict Halloween sales will hit record levels this year — again — despite the specter tariffs and inflation are putting on the season.

Up until last week, Tom Fallenstein, CEO of the Mankato, Minnesota-based behemoth HalloweenCostumes.com, was worried.

The company normally imports and sells 2 million costumes a year to consumers around the country — but not this year. Business was down 15% to 20% in September and early October.

Last week, the online retailer finally started getting 85,000 to 100,000 orders a day for costumes that average $65 a pop.

“That’s much later than usual,” Fallenstein said.

HalloweenCostumes.com gets most of its inventory from China, which has catapulted costs $12 million because of Trump administration tariffs, he said.

“I can’t eat that. I don’t make that much money,” Fallenstein said. “I’m anxious.”

Fallenstein is hoping this last-minute rush of orders continues through this entire week. If it does, he may be able to ring up close to last year’s sales.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts 76% of Americans will spend $13.1 billion to celebrate this Halloween. That’s $1.5 billion more than last year.

Over the years, “spending has grown along with Halloween’s popularity,” said Katherine Cullen, consumer insights vice president for NRF. “Instead of a single day, Halloween has really evolved into an entire season of its own.”

Sales forecasts are up in nearly all categories from costumes and decorations to candy. It’s also higher for events like haunted houses, corn mazes and promotions at amusement parks and zoos.

Ernie Goss, director of the Institute for Economic Inquiry at Creighton University, said Halloween spending is not strong across the board, but it is in wealthier pockets across the country.

Lower-income communities, he said, are not seeing the same surge in spending.

But when you add it up, the NRF estimates Americans still will shell out $3.9 billion for candy and $4.3 billion on costumes.

Candy manufacturer Maud Borup already is seeing growth because of this year’s Halloween season. Contracts from retailers like Target, Walmart, Hy-Vee, Aldi and others for the holiday now make up about $10 million of the company’s $50 million in total revenue. Six years ago, Halloween contributed just $2.4 million.

“It’s part of a trend,” said Maud Borup spokeswoman Karen Edwards.

Over the past six years, as the company added manufacturing capacity, it introduced more than 60 Halloween products.

This year, its candy factories in Minnesota and Wisconsin cranked out 20 of the new confections from a giant “scary cherry gummy brain” to glitter bomb drink mixes, a 14-day chocolate calendar, sour pumpkin candies and coffin-shaped boxes.

Maud Borup also has added customers such as Minnesota’s Largest Candy Store in Jordan.

The NRF predicts costume sales will be 13% higher than last year. Val Larche, a costumer at the Costume Collective in northeast Minneapolis, can believe it.

Halloween costume rentals make up about 10% of business, despite competition from Amazon and Spirit Halloween, Larche said.

“We’ve got racks of costumes on reserve,” with customers as varied as bartenders at the Saloon, nursing home workers, school bus drivers and those who work at Can Can Wonderland in St. Paul, Larche said.

The company predicts it will outfit more than 500 people at roughly $70 a rental.

Last week, workers at Can Can Wonderland were getting ready, installing a motion-sensor animatronic skeleton band called Bone Jett and draping the bar in lights, bats and spiderwebs. They also set up racks of free costumes for guests to use while playing putt-putt or pinball and grabbing a bite or one of Can Can’s ghoulish specialty drinks.

The effort was successful last year, with crowds flocking to celebrate the holiday, said marketing and special events director Jeannie Kenevan.

Halloween tends to bring in 50% more guests than a typical weekend, and Can Can is hoping that holds true this year.

After a sleepy back-to-school September, the business is welcome, Kenevan said.

With Halloween on a Friday this year, Kenevan said Can Can is hoping this weekend kicks off more than a week of increased traffic.

Jon Graff, who maintains all the games at Can Can and spent six hours wiring and installing the animatronic Bone Jett band to play AC/DC’s “Highway to Hell,” said he expects 1,500 patrons to show up Oct. 31. As soon as the electronics were operating Oct. 19, teenagers lined up for their turn with the skeleton rockers.

“Everybody loves Halloween,” Graff said. “We haven’t slowed down, so (crowds) will probably be better than last year.”

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